ToffCap's Monday Monitor #64

Actionable event-driven and special situations

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FRIENDS, WE’LL BE TAKING A MUCH NEEDED BREAK AFTER THIS PUBLICATION. WE PROMISED YOU 42 - 46 TMMs PER YEAR, AND WE’RE RIGHT ON TRACK.

THE TMM WILL BE BACK IN AUGUST!

ToffCap’s Monday Monitor is our weekly overview of actionable event-driven trades and special situations.

Disclaimer. ToffCap’s Monday Monitor is provided for informative purposes only. No due diligence has (yet) been performed on the names on this list. The list might change strongly on a regular basis. This overview does not constitute advice; always do your own due diligence. The list is dynamic; it continues to grow and change. If you have interesting additions to the list, feel free to contact us at contact@toffcap.com or on Twitter.

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This week’s additions and highlights

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1. SPIN-OFFS

• Thyssenkrupp (TKA Germany). Thyssenkrupp is considering the exit of its materials trading unit, possible via a spin. This is interesting given the size of the unit (16k FTE, €12bn revenues and €200m ebitda), which could fetch €2bn. To note that Thyssenkrupp is trading at a €2.7bn EV and €5.7bn market cap, with the company also working on other disposals. UPDATE (June 23, 2025) Thyssenkrupp's transformation continues, with the company approving the spin-off of a 49% minority state in Marine Systems. Approval will be on 8/8 shareholder meeting. We would again suggest to keep this one assessed given the big transformative plans there are pushed through.

  UPDATE (July 14, 2025) We flag Thyssenkrupp's recent agreement with labor union , effectively signing the restructuring, as well as the 'security agreement' with the government regarding the TKMS spin. A reminder that TKA is effectively dismantling. The shares are moving but there remains a ton to gain ioo.

• Fortive (FTV US). It's time to highlight the upcoming spin of Fortive's Precision Technology segment Ralliant. This will be quite a large one, with Ralliant pro-forma FY24 revenues at ~$2.2bn and $480m adj. operating profit, a big chunk of Fortive's overall financials. Interesting stock for the quality inclined. Spin expected for Q2. UPDATE (June 9, 2025) We highlight the upcoming investor day (June 10). UPDATE (June 23, 2025) Ralliant spin on June 28.

  UPDATE (July 14, 2025) Ralliant currently trading (RAL). $5.3bn market cap. Pre-coverage period. Interesting spin; we refer to our previous comments.

• Valterra Platinum (was Anglo American Platinum) (VAL UK). Anglo American will spin its 67% owned platinum group metals business Valterra Platinum (was Anglo American Platinum) on May 31 (~51% of AMS). AAP has also set a date for a secondary listing in London (June 2). UPDATE (June 2, 2025) We note the upcoming transactions over the next few days. Watch out for the London listing (i.c. change with the past).

  UPDATE (July 14, 2025) Another spin that has recently begun trading (VALT). If you're into Platinum, this one might be interesting to check out.

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2. STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES & REVIEWS

(Potential take-outs, asset sales, M&A, etc.)

• Karyopharm Therapeutics (KPTI US). Karyopharm announced that it will cut 20% of its workforce and reiterated that it continues to evaluate options. Karyo has roughly $120m debt on a $34m market cap and quite some cash burn. But the company also has c. $150m revenues. Fwiw, it is covered by 7 analysts with a TP of +500%.

  UPDATE (July 14, 2025) Cargo is to be acquired by Concentra (Tang) for $4.379 p/s in cash + a CVR. Current share price of $ 4.595. The CVR is linked to excess cash above a $217.5m threshold for completing the deal and a portion of the proceeds from certain potential product sales over the next two years.

• Adaptimmune (ADAP US). ADAP is a net cash (though slightly), busted biotech. The company announced a while back that it will review strategic options. Meanwhile it cut some programs, 30% of its workforce and is targeting additional $75-100m cost savings. The difference with other busted biotech is that ADAP is already commercialising some drugs. We could see this one sell + wind down.